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1993-05-02
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Ken Deen's THE AGGRESSIVE TRADER(tm)
"Seeking double-digit profits in one to four months"
Vol. 2, No. 71 April 26, 1993 11:45am New York Time
**********
Market Stance: Neutral
**********
ALERT ITEMS:
Market Commentary: See below
Other Strong Recommendations (These stocks will be tracked and followed up
with sell [or cover] Alerts):
* Cummins Engine Co. (NYSE: CUM, $91.63)
EPS:71, RS:76, GR:18->6, PE:17, Engines-Internal Combustion
(Vol.2 #28)
**********
Market Commentary
Recent earnings surprise stocks have been faring poorly. Some of the
best earnings surprises have been greeted negatively by the market. That
is why there have been no DESI(tm) stocks since early February. Very few
earnings surprises are receiving the kind of enthusiastic market response
that the DESI(tm) System looks for. The Dow is near all-time highs, but
the broad market is well into a correction.
In this market environment, extreme caution is in order. I would prefer
to be at least 30% in cash at this time. I will continue to report the
best earnings surprises in those groups that are gaining favor; however,
I would urge proceeding with extreme caution.
I do expect to turn bullish within the next few months. I expect we are
paving the way now for the next market advance, but this is a good time to
sit on the sidelines.
**********
Cummins Engine Co.
I previously recommended Cummins Engine at 85 1/8 on Feb. 12 (Vol.2 #28)
after a stellar earnings report last quarter. I sold prematurely as part of a
shift to a bearish market stance on Feb. 25.
Since then, the "Engines - Internal Combustion" group has continued to gain
favor. Today, the company announced another stunning earnings report.
Earnings reached $2.24 per share for the quarter on a 19% jump in sales. This
represents excellent acceleration in both sales and earnings growth. Trailing
earnings jumped 59% from $3.47 to $5.51, causing the P/E to drop from the
26 yesterday to 17 today.
The EPS rank is not as high as I usually like to see; that's because this
is a recent turnaround story. After four years of losses (1988 through 1991),
the company started posting profits in the first quarter of '92. Thus, the
current earnings momentum is a recent phenomenon. Cummins is a cyclical
stock, not a true growth stock.
QtrEnd Sales($mil) Earnings-per-share
----- ------------------- ------------------
Jun92 948.1 vs 877.6 +8% 1.00 vs -1.29 +2.29
Sep92 903.6 vs 850.9 +6% 0.69 vs -0.94 +1.63
Dec92 1016.2 vs 865.5 +17% 1.58 vs -0.29 +1.87
Mar93 1048.4 vs 881.3 +19% 2.24 vs 0.20 +2.04
As I write this, the stock is up 2 7/8 at 94 1/2. The stock has come a
long way from its 52-week low of 91 5/8. It is off slightly from its recent
high of 98 5/8, having sold off sharply last Thursday. I do not consider
the stock overbought.
The main negative here is the market environment (see market commentary
above). Please tread lightly and with extreme caution in this market!
Cummins Engine, located in Columbus, Indiana, manufactures diesel engines,
parts, and related components for heavy-duty trucks and other industrial
equipment.
As with all specific stock buy Alerts, I will publish a sell Alert when
I recommend selling.
All rankings in today's Alert (earnings-per-share, relative strength, and
group) are from Investor's Business Daily.
<Stock chart appears here in printed version.>
**********
Previous Alert: Vol.2 #69 (April 21, 1993)
**********
*** To all who download this newsletter ***
On May 1, 1993, this newsletter will be available only for a subscription
fee. There will be no further uploads on or after that date.
From now through April 30, 1993, I am offering at-cost subscriptions (very
very inexpensive) by e-mail, fax, and postal mail. These are alternatives to
downloading. E-mail via Internet is free during this trial period.
Monthly Status Reports (available in printed form only) are an essential
adjunct to these timely bulletins. Among other things, they review the stock
holdings and historical performance of each newsletter account. To receive a
free sample Monthly Status Report plus an at-cost subscription form, just
send your paper mail address.
-Ken Deen
**********
The Aggressive Trader is edited and published at irregular intervals, but
at least monthly, by Deen Capital Management, Inc., P.O. Box 4791, Santa
Barbara, California 93140, (805) 565-2039.
CompuServe: 72020,2050 Internet: 72020.2050@compuserve.com
Deen Capital Management, Inc., its principals, employees, affiliates,
and/or clients may have positions in securities recommended herein and may
make additional purchases and/or sales in these securities.
Recommendations made in this publication involve a high degree of risk and
may result in losses. Readers should not assume that recommendations will be
profitable or will equal past performance. The information in this
publication is collected from sources believed to be reliable, but neither the
accuracy nor the completeness of this information is guaranteed.
The Aggressive Trader, Deen Earnings Surprise Index, DESI, and DESI-3 are
all trademarks of Deen Capital Management, Inc.
Copyright (c) 1993 Deen Capital Management, Inc.
-END-